The Northeastern Political Realignment of 2006

An American political realignment has truly come into fruition in 2006. No, it's not the great Conservative majority prematurely chattered about in 2004, following Bush's razor-thin electoral victory, or the Republican Party's retention of the Senate where the Democratic minority had more actual votes from the American people. The untold narrative of 2006 is the Democratic consolidation of the Northeast into a largely one-party region.

In New England, only one--one!--Republican representative remains: Chris Shays of Connecticut, a moderate (although a supporter of the Iraq War) and well-respected Republican from the Connecticut suburbs of New York City. Shays has fought two close battles for re-election in the last two cycles, after cruising to victory in elections past. And he is the only one left in the whole New England Republican delegation. Furthermore, when New York is added to the equation, the picture looks even bleaker. There are now 23 Democrats and only 6 Republicans representing the State of New York, after an election where a retiring moderate Republican (Sherry Boehlert in NY-24)was replaced by a Democrat, and two longstanding incumbent Republicans were defeated by Democrats. Sue Kelly, representing Westchester and Putnam counties in suburban and exurban areas near New York City, was the victim of changing demographics; John Sweeney's defeat in a massive gerrymandered district stretching from the Catskills to the Adirondacks portends a much more ominous future for Northeastern Republicans. Sweeney's district was gerrymandered with input from the Republican-controlled State Senate. That district should have never even been within the realm of possibility for Democrats.

But it was, and to the surprise of many, Kirsten Gillibrand managed to capture a district that stretching through hundreds of miles of forests, farms, and mountains. Granted, all the other competitive races in upstate NY in seats held by Republicans stayed Republican. But they barely did so, most winning races by less than 5 percentage points.

The South and the Northeast are, once again, exhibiting antithetical voting patterns . As the South is now a mostly one-party region, except in African-American districts,the Northeast is now similarly uncompetitive for the vast majority of its districts. That is, with this major exception in mind: Democrats are winning in rural areas that have long been comfortably Republican--look at the ouster of both of New Hampshire's Republican representatives this election--while the racial divide will continue to dominate Southern politics. There will always be African-American Democrats representing (hideously gerrymandered) Southern districts. There may not, however, be anyone, of any creed or color, representing a Northeastern district soon who is not a Democrat. We should simultaneously lament the loss of two-party competition in the region, and the existence of a Republican Party moderate enough to house the descendents of the proud Northeastern Rockafeller Republican tradition.