Landscape Maintenance

Excuse my tardiness in not updating this site more often; It's been hectic here, and I'll try to update at least twice a week in order to facilitate more discussion.


Much has changed in the American political landscape since my last post, the major news being the Democratic takeover of both the House and the Senate. The House takeover was indeed the predicted wave, higher than my prediction of 25 seats, although not by much (the current count stands at +29, with 8 close races undecided. Each undecided race has a Republican in the lead. Only candidate Darcy Burner in WA has any chance of coming from behind). A 29 seat pickup is a serious, rare electoral event, but well behind the 50+ seats the Republicans picked up in 1994. Why did the Democrats fail to pick up as many or more seats in such a poisonous political environment for Republicans? For one, redistricting has made more and more seats off limits to real competition--a fact that I think, whether one is from the Left or Right, is anathema to democracy. But what is haughtily termed Political Science cannot allways predict people's behavior; thus the unexpected tossing out of longtime incumbents long rated 'safe' in their pork-fed districts.

Another difference between 2006 and 1994 was that in 1994, the Republican party consolidated its power in the South, defeating scores of conservative Democrats(the Democrat's consolidation of the Northeast in 2006 is the most important and least talked about facet of the election, and I will explore the topic in a later post). The South was on its way out for the Democrats, and they were going to lose it sooner or later anyway. 1994 was a bad political year that coincided with a somewhat independent ideological, historical shift. The same cannot be really said for the Democratic party's gains in 2006. The shift in the Northeast is not analogous to the South in 1994.

Now, these factors considered, it's fair to say the Democrats had a very strong showing this year, given the structural disadvantages built in to the system (i.e., capturing Senate seats in Missouri, Virginia, Ohio, and defeating 3(!) incumbents in Indiana). Don't let the apologists on the Right fool you--Krauthammer, Hannity, etc., this was a disaster not only for the corrupt Republican party of 2006, but for modern conservatism as a viable movement.